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6 Industries Will Be the Most Beneficial from the Upcoming 5G

Number of visits: Date:2018-3-15 09:30

Abstract:

4G has not been able to meet the massive demand of broadband subscribers in the future and cannot support the interconnection between people and things or two things. In this case, 5G came into being. It will provide at least 10 times the peak rate of 4G, transmission delay in milliseconds and connectivity in billions with completely new network architecture, opening up a new era of extensive networking and deep human-computer interaction. It is the most important technological innovation in the communication industry and will bring about radical changes in all fields of society.


"The impact of 5G on humans is similar to that of railways or electric lights." The significance of 5G is so great. The purpose of this article is to help you get acquainted with 5G, become familiar with the new technology, master industrial changes and share capital feast.


5G used dozens of new technologies to achieve its capacity indicators. The application of these technologies will have varying degrees of impact on related industries and will bring new opportunities to enterprises that have accumulated relevant technologies, scale advantages and excellent business models. The following research in this paper is based on the existing 5G technology.

Antenna

Antenna is mainly used in the field of base stations, mobile phones and other terminals. The application of 5G will make the antenna market demand in these areas increase. According to the broker forecast, there will be a larger increase. the details are as follows.


(1) Base station antenna: The overall market size of 5G base station antennas is about $9.4 billion, with an average annual market of about $2.3 billion per year, increasing over 250% compared with 4G. The reasons are as follows:


a. The number of antenna elements is significantly improved due to the massive MIMO technology;


b. The new base station brings the expansion of the number of antennas.


c. High-frequency antenna increases the difficulty and prices.


d. New antenna technology adds value.


e. Acer base station will use C-RAN technology layout.


(2) Assuming the global mobile phone shipments are 2 billion units, the price of each mobile phone antenna is from $1.6 to $4.7, the mobile phone antenna market will reach $9.4 billion scale.


(3) The low-end antenna price of IoT terminal is about $0.5 / set. According to the estimation of 0.8 billion for terminals per year, the market size are about $2.4 billion. Overall, the scale of terminal antennas will be up 275% over the current market.

Base Station

(1) Macro base station: The growth of the macro base station market come from the limited increase of the number of base stations and the promotion of unit price of base stations. At present, there are about 3 million 4G macro base stations in China, including 1.44 million for China Mobile, 860,000 for China Telecom and 700,000 for China Unicom. In addition, the three major carriers added another 600,000 for the 4G macro base station in 2017. Assuming that the 5G macro base stations are 1.5 times that of the end of 2017, the number of 5G macro base stations will reach 4.8 million. By then, China's 5G wide coverage phase will basically come to an end. It is predicted that from 2019 to 2023 macro base station growth rate will be at a high growth rate.


(2) Small cell is a base station device that is much smaller than traditional macro cell in terms of product form, transmission power and coverage, and can also be regarded as a low-power device that can use a license frequency, but also integration WIFI wireless access point using unlicensed frequency access technology. The power is generally 50mw-5w, coverage in the 10-200 meters. Small cell construction is conducive to the realization of ultra-dense networking.


In 2017 MWC, 5G is the biggest bright spot. 5G cannot do without the support of small base stations. In general, the number of small base stations is about 1.5-2 times the number of macro base stations. Therefore, it is assumed that the number of small base stations deployed in 2020 will reach $1.34 million and that of small base stations will be $4 billion based on the current figure of $473/unit. This part is a new market.

RF Module (Filter)

RF front-end chip market is mainly divided into two categories: one is the circuit chip by use of semiconductor technology (GaAs, GaN, CMOS, etc.), like PA and Switch. Another is the filter by use of MEMS technology, which are represented by SAW and BAW.


According to Navian's forecast, from 2015 to 2019, the total market size of RF front-end modules for mobile communications terminals will increase from $11.49 billion to $21.21 billion at a CAGR of 15.4%. However, the growth rate of various RF front-end components of mobile phones is different. For example, the compound annual growth rate of filters is 21% and the compound annual growth rate of switches is 12%. The RF power amplifier and low noise Amplifiers (PAs & LNAs) compound annual growth rate of only 1%. Due to the rapid growth of the filter market, there is a greater chance, so the RF module focuses on the filter market.


The global market for SAW filters was $2 billion in 2015. (According to the estimation of murata accounted), more than $3 billion in 2016, the market growth rate is more than 50% (from mobile phones, base stations and other terminals). Considering there are BAW filter and 2018 5G band after another division, the market space will double. By 2020, the value of the filter unit cell phone will also increase, corresponding to the market nearly $10 billion. Therefore, market demand-driven filter industry has become the core logic of growth and the relevant drivers may gradually promote market growth in the future.


The driving factors mainly come from several aspects:


a. The overall penetration rate of 4G handsets in the mobile phone market has been raised;


b. With the 4G technology evolution (including carrier aggregation), the relevant frequency band continues to increase;


c. IoT broadens the horizontal market;


d. The 5G potential band and access brings the upgrade.


In addition, the filter appears oligopoly in the global market, the giants of capital integration welcome a new round of growth.


(1) Because of the need of technology accumulation and market space, the competition pattern is oligopoly in the filter market. From the shipment situation, US manufacturers Avago, Qorvo, Skyworks and Japanese manufacturers TDK, Murata, Taiyo Yuden are the main manufacturer. Among them, many American manufacturers have the ability to provide front-end module solutions and provide BAW filters. Japanese manufacturers mainly use SAW filters.


(2) In 2014-2016, some of these giants engaged in mergers and acquisitions with other chip manufacturers such as Broadcom and Qualcomm to form joint-venture manufacturing filters for their subsidiaries. This just shows that the future filter market is huge, the major manufacturers are doing related preparations.


(3) SAW filter has a huge market in China, but there are fewer domestic manufacturers and the domestic alternative opportunities are expected.


In addition, due to the cost of the filter RF components is about 50%, so the future RF module market size of about $15.8 billion.

Optical Modules

The 4G base station mostly adopts the networking mode of "BBU + RRU". The optical networks are connected by optical fibers and converted by optical modules. The number of optical modules required by a base station is about 7. In the 5G era, Far from the solution, the number of optical modules required for a base station is expected to increase to 15 while the rate will be upgraded to 10G / 25G models. So optical module market will amount to about $0.5 billion for 4G raised to about $2.2 billion.

Optical Fiber Cables

5G innovation in wireless technology and network technology has brought new opportunities for the development of the cable industry, especially for the field of optical fibers and cables. The demand for optical fibers and cables will continue to rise as the demand for optical communications transformation in the world increases by a huge margin. The benefits from 5G to optical fiber cables are as follows:


a. The increase of base stations leads to increase of feeder usage;


b. The increase of base stations results in the increase of optical fiber cables connected between base stations;


c. The explosive growth of the demand for the transmission/prequel demand is increasing the demand for fiber optic cable. In addition, according to market research firm forecasts, the global optical fiber market in 2017-2021 will grow 11.45% CAGR.

The Main Equipment Manufacturers

The market size of equipment manufacturers is mainly determined by the investment size of the three major operators. According to the brokerage forecasts, the total investment of 5G wireless network of the three major operators exceeds $134.3 billion(base station + antenna + RF device + optical module), up more than 60% over the same period of last year, of which, the total number of macro base stations is about 4.8 million, the number of small cells is about 8.5 million.

TypeInfo: Blog Articles

Keywords for the information:5G  5G network  base station